Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB -325 ALCN +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +7 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -9.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -7.5 (-0.5) | 147.1 (+13.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -7.2 (-0.2) | 147.1 (+13.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -7.2 (-0.2) | 146.7 (+14.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -7.4 (-0.4) | 146.2 (+14.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALCN 68 – 56 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 6-14 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#326) | -17.4 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.84 (#242) | -2.00 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#272) | -2.61 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#222) | 0.395 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 63.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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