Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ALCN -400 UAPB +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +9 | 199 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -7.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (+36.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -6.4 (+2.6) | 156.4 (+42.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -7.1 (+1.9) | 161.0 (+38.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -6.5 (+2.5) | 156.6 (+42.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -6.4 (+2.6) | 156.3 (+42.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALCN 68 – 56 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-14 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 83.7 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#305) | -12.7 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#258) | -1.79 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#263) | -2.38 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#198) | 0.434 (#304) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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