Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -400 UAPB +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +19 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ALCN -13.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -11.1 (+7.9) | 143.6 (-4.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | ALCN -10.8 (+8.2) | 145.2 (-6.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | ALCN -11.7 (+7.3) | 144.1 (-5.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -11.4 (+7.6) | 144.3 (-5.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALCN 68 – 56 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 3-15 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-17 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 85.7 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#335) | -22.0 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.82 (#327) | -4.15 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#309) | -5.53 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#303) | 0.316 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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