Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +195 ALCN -230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -7.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -5.9 (+3.9) | 140.8 (-12.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -6.9 (+4.9) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -6.2 (+4.2) | 139.0 (-11.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -5.8 (+3.8) | 138.8 (-10.8) | 19% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALCN 68 – 56 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 11-7 |
| Home | 4-8 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-17 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -21.2 (#363) | -10.7 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.00 (#362) | -1.79 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.00 (#363) | -2.16 (#320) |
| RPI | 0.349 (#364) | 0.451 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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