Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN +105 UAPB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +35 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -0.7 (-34.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -0.2 (-34.8) | 148.4 (-17.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -0.2 (-35.2) | 145.1 (-14.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.0 (-35.0) | 147.6 (-16.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -0.0 (-35.0) | 150.2 (-19.2) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALCN 68 – 56 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 2-18 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 81.9 |
| Massey | -16.9 (#355) | -13.2 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#328) | -1.42 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.57 (#335) | -2.03 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#341) | 0.463 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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