Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +110 ALCN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +12 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -2.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.8 (-46.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -0.1 (-12.1) | 155.2 (-31.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -0.3 (-12.3) | 154.2 (-30.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -0.9 (-12.9) | 155.8 (-31.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -1.0 (-13.0) | 156.2 (-32.2) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UAPB 83 – 48 ALCN |
| Feb 7, 2026 | UAPB 84 – 77 ALCN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALCN 65 – 63 UAPB |
| Feb 8, 2025 | ALCN 79 – 60 UAPB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ALCN 104 – 95 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#334) | -10.6 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#302) | -1.50 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#313) | -1.97 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#294) | 0.433 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 33.8% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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