I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
First National Bank Arena · February 7, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ARST -2.5 Home covered
O/U 154.5 Under
Money ARST -162 / BGSU +136
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARST win
Actual ARST +37 145 Won
Massey BGSU -1.6 (+38.6)
Massey Totals 157.3 (-12.3)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 66%
Efficiency Plus ML ARST -2.8 (+34.2) 147.4 (-2.4) 67%
Baseline Tuned ML ARST -0.3 (+36.7) 145.8 (-0.8) 54%
Baseline ML BGSU -0.2 (+37.2) 145.1 (-0.1) 54%
Baseline Plus ML BGSU -0.4 (+37.4) 148.1 (-3.1) 51%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 11, 2023 BGSU 8175 ARST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARST BGSU
Overall 20-12 18-14
Conference 11-7 9-9
Home 11-4 10-7
Away 9-7 6-6
Neutral 0-1 2-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 81.8 76.8
Avg Pts Against 78.0 72.7
Massey -0.9 (#182) 3.7 (#112)
Bradley-Terry 0.30 (#134) 0.09 (#157)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.32 (#136) 0.23 (#144)
RPI 0.546 (#87) 0.501 (#175)
Shooting & Four Factors ARST BGSU
FG% 43.1% 46.9%
3PT% 31.6% 35.1%
REB / G 40.3 34.9
OREB / G 14.0 10.3
AST / TO 0.98 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.1% 52.9%
TOV% 20.0% 16.9%
ORB% 37.1% 30.3%
FT Rate 28.7% 26.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 50.9%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 20.0%
DRB% 72.8% 72.8%
Opp FT Rate 27.0% 27.4%

Game Analysis

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