Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -162 BGSU +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +37 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -1.6 (+38.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -2.8 (+34.2) | 147.4 (-2.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.3 (+36.7) | 145.8 (-0.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -0.2 (+37.2) | 145.1 (-0.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -0.4 (+37.4) | 148.1 (-3.1) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | BGSU 81 – 75 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#182) | 3.7 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#134) | 0.09 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#136) | 0.23 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#87) | 0.501 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.7% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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