Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -750 USI +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +25 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -11.0 (+14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -9.2 (+15.8) | 141.1 (+13.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -10.1 (+14.9) | 139.8 (+15.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -10.3 (+14.7) | 136.3 (+18.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -9.1 (+15.9) | 135.3 (+19.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | SEMO 84 – 76 USI |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SEMO 79 – 74 USI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 66 USI |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SEMO 70 – 66 USI |
| Dec 30, 2023 | SEMO 93 – 91 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-5 | 3-10 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#229) | -12.3 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#233) | -3.04 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#244) | -3.49 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#201) | 0.353 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.0% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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