Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -110 USI +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +2 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -0.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+51.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -1.0 (+1.0) | 137.0 (+47.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -2.1 (-0.1) | 133.5 (+50.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -1.6 (+0.4) | 137.6 (+46.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -2.1 (-0.1) | 140.9 (+43.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SEMO 90 – 65 USI |
| Jan 9, 2026 | SEMO 84 – 76 USI |
| Feb 9, 2025 | SEMO 79 – 74 USI |
| Jan 10, 2025 | SEMO 77 – 66 USI |
| Mar 3, 2024 | SEMO 70 – 66 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-7 | 5-10 |
| Away | 1-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -14.1 (#352) | -10.3 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#328) | -3.50 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.25 (#330) | -5.20 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.425 (#293) | 0.412 (#314) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 37.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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