Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | YALE -1650 BRWN +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -19.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -17.4 (-5.4) | 141.5 (+8.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -17.2 (-5.2) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -18.7 (-6.7) | 142.8 (+7.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -19.3 (-7.3) | 141.0 (+9.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2026 | YALE 70 – 53 BRWN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | YALE 70 – 61 BRWN |
| Jan 11, 2025 | YALE 79 – 58 BRWN |
| Mar 17, 2024 | YALE 62 – 61 BRWN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BRWN 84 – 81 YALE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 9-18 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 3-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 9-3 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#72) | -7.7 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#71) | -1.90 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#82) | -2.33 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#45) | 0.407 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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