Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +100 MUR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +10 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -0.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.1 (-11.1) | 154.9 (+17.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -0.4 (-9.6) | 153.8 (+18.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.5 (-11.5) | 149.3 (+22.7) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -1.0 (-11.0) | 151.9 (+20.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SIU 60 – 58 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | 6.4 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#187) | 0.90 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#185) | 1.04 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#159) | 0.551 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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