Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SIU -213 MUR +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -5.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -5.3 (-1.3) | 139.1 (+0.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -5.4 (-1.4) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -5.0 (-1.0) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -5.2 (-1.2) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SIU 60 – 58 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#107) | 2.1 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#125) | -0.17 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.09 (#110) | 0.27 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#157) | 0.506 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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