Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -125 SIU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -5.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -4.5 (-2.5) | 137.4 (-15.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -3.2 (-1.2) | 137.5 (-15.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -4.3 (-2.3) | 136.6 (-14.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -4.0 (-2.0) | 136.7 (-14.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SIU 60 – 58 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#148) | -1.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#157) | -0.08 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#155) | -0.09 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#168) | 0.511 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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