Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -290 SIU +235 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +3 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -8.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -8.3 (-5.3) | 160.9 (+4.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -8.8 (-5.8) | 162.8 (+2.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -8.4 (-5.4) | 159.1 (+5.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -7.9 (-4.9) | 159.8 (+5.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SIU 60 – 58 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#74) | 3.7 (#115) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#73) | -0.22 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#86) | -0.11 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#95) | 0.493 (#185) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 36.5% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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