Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -167 SIU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +2 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -0.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -0.2 (-2.2) | 135.5 (-17.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.5 (-1.5) | 131.8 (-13.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -0.5 (-2.5) | 134.7 (-16.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.0 (-2.0) | 134.9 (-16.9) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MUR 74 – 64 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#146) | 4.9 (#100) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#220) | 0.39 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#179) | 0.90 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#211) | 0.511 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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