Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +100 MUR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -0.8 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.7 (-10.7) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -0.1 (-10.1) | 140.8 (-2.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -0.1 (-10.1) | 141.0 (-3.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -0.1 (-9.9) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MUR 91 – 81 SIU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | MUR 84 – 81 SIU |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MUR 62 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 22, 2024 | SIU 72 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 27, 2024 | SIU 60 – 58 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#206) | 1.8 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#229) | 0.32 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#211) | 0.48 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#195) | 0.522 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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