Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -310 AAMU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -5.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -5.0 (+8.0) | 145.7 (+3.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -4.1 (+8.9) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -4.2 (+8.8) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.1 (+9.9) | 146.7 (+2.3) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | SOU 88 – 85 AAMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SOU 71 – 57 AAMU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | AAMU 66 – 56 SOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SOU 69 – 62 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-12 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#298) | -10.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#287) | -1.19 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#277) | -1.59 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#311) | 0.428 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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