Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU -108 SOU -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +3 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | AAMU -1.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -0.1 (-2.9) | 148.4 (+24.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -1.4 (-4.4) | 145.7 (+27.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -0.9 (-3.9) | 148.8 (+24.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -0.9 (-3.9) | 149.1 (+23.9) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SOU 71 – 57 AAMU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | AAMU 66 – 56 SOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SOU 69 – 62 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-5 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 80.2 |
| Massey | -10.4 (#313) | -8.4 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#260) | -1.16 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#263) | -1.33 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#266) | 0.455 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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