Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | SOU -1400 AAMU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -17.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -13.2 (+0.8) | 142.3 (-14.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -12.9 (+1.1) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -13.6 (+0.4) | 139.8 (-11.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -13.0 (+1.0) | 139.0 (-11.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | SOU 88 – 85 AAMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | AAMU 66 – 56 SOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SOU 69 – 62 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-1 | 8-9 |
| Away | 9-10 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#226) | -17.5 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#208) | -3.04 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#187) | -3.63 (#359) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#186) | 0.386 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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