Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU +140 SOU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +10 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -4.8 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -2.9 (+12.9) | 135.9 (-13.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -3.4 (+13.4) | 134.3 (-12.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -3.9 (+13.9) | 134.1 (-12.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -3.8 (+13.8) | 137.6 (-15.6) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | SOU 88 – 85 AAMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SOU 71 – 57 AAMU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SOU 69 – 62 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-15 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.6 |
| Massey | -13.1 (#341) | -5.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#318) | -0.16 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#329) | -0.59 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#315) | 0.511 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.9% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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