Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU +270 SOU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -10.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -9.8 (-3.2) | 148.8 (+0.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -7.8 (-5.2) | 147.4 (+1.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -10.6 (-2.4) | 145.7 (+3.3) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -8.7 (-4.3) | 147.4 (+1.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | SOU 88 – 85 AAMU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SOU 81 – 68 AAMU |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SOU 71 – 57 AAMU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | AAMU 66 – 56 SOU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SOU 69 – 62 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-9 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.9 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -17.2 (#360) | -3.5 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.16 (#358) | 0.10 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.71 (#356) | -0.05 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.336 (#363) | 0.501 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | SOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 61.9% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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