Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -380 LAM +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -11.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -8.8 (+1.2) | 135.7 (+22.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -12.4 (-2.4) | 137.1 (+20.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.1 (-1.1) | 137.2 (+20.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -11.3 (-1.3) | 136.8 (+21.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | SFA 88 – 81 LAM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LAM 67 – 62 SFA |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFA 72 – 63 LAM |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFA 70 – 56 LAM |
| Jan 18, 2022 | SFA 86 – 78 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 7-15 |
| Home | 15-1 | 7-8 |
| Away | 12-4 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#86) | -1.3 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#69) | -0.71 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#70) | -0.81 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#80) | 0.456 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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