Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | LAM +170 SFA -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +7 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -6.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.3 (+34.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -4.9 (-2.1) | 132.7 (+36.3) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -6.5 (-0.5) | 132.0 (+37.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -6.1 (-0.9) | 133.8 (+35.2) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.1 (-0.9) | 132.5 (+36.5) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SFA 84 – 74 LAM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LAM 67 – 62 SFA |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SFA 72 – 63 LAM |
| Feb 19, 2022 | SFA 70 – 56 LAM |
| Jan 18, 2022 | SFA 86 – 78 LAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 7-15 | 20-2 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-10 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#205) | 7.0 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#235) | 1.35 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#230) | 1.81 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#275) | 0.542 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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