Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -4500 ORE +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -19.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.7 (-11.7) | 140.2 (-8.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -16.1 (-12.1) | 141.4 (-9.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -16.7 (-12.7) | 142.0 (-10.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -17.1 (-13.1) | 140.6 (-8.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2025 | PUR 65 – 58 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 22.1 (#8) | 5.3 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#12) | 0.50 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.67 (#13) | 0.81 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#9) | 0.514 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 2.17 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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