Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | MSST +220 ARK -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +20 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -8.9 (-11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (-10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -7.5 (-12.5) | 159.1 (-3.1) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.3 (-14.7) | 158.8 (-2.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.8 (-14.2) | 158.0 (-2.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.6 (-13.4) | 157.4 (-1.4) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARK 93 – 92 MSST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MSST 71 – 67 ARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MSST 70 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 6, 2022 | ARK 63 – 55 MSST |
| Dec 29, 2021 | MSST 81 – 68 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 90.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#93) | 18.1 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#82) | 2.93 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.69 (#74) | 3.87 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#107) | 0.623 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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