Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -120 MSST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +1 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -2.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -3.6 (-2.6) | 150.1 (+34.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -0.6 (+0.4) | 151.2 (+33.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -2.7 (-1.7) | 149.6 (+35.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.9 (-1.9) | 151.9 (+33.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 68 MSST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MSST 71 – 67 ARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MSST 70 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 6, 2022 | ARK 63 – 55 MSST |
| Dec 29, 2021 | MSST 81 – 68 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#36) | 14.5 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#37) | 3.01 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#35) | 3.63 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#64) | 0.600 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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