Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -275 MSST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -7.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.5 (-11.5) | 130.0 (+4.0) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.4 (-12.4) | 130.6 (+3.4) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.4 (-11.4) | 131.6 (+2.4) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.4 (-11.4) | 130.5 (+3.5) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 68 MSST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARK 93 – 92 MSST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MSST 71 – 67 ARK |
| Feb 6, 2022 | ARK 63 – 55 MSST |
| Dec 29, 2021 | MSST 81 – 68 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 61.0 |
| Massey | 13.6 (#22) | 9.8 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#29) | 1.68 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#31) | 2.09 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#16) | 0.558 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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