Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -7.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -5.5 (+7.5) | 148.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -6.2 (+6.8) | 144.9 (+4.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -5.9 (+7.1) | 147.1 (+1.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -6.1 (+6.9) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 68 MSST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARK 93 – 92 MSST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MSST 71 – 67 ARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MSST 70 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 6, 2022 | ARK 63 – 55 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 17-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#41) | 7.3 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#62) | 1.67 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#61) | 2.15 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#68) | 0.550 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 35.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 80.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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