Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +8 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -4.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -5.3 (+2.7) | 142.2 (-24.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -6.5 (+1.5) | 147.4 (-29.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -6.3 (+1.7) | 147.5 (-29.5) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.3 (+2.7) | 147.2 (-29.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 68 MSST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARK 93 – 92 MSST |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MSST 71 – 67 ARK |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MSST 70 – 64 ARK |
| Dec 29, 2021 | MSST 81 – 68 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 17-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#24) | 10.4 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#43) | 1.66 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#41) | 1.97 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.582 (#48) | 0.572 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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