Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -1000 ARK +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +4 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -13.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -12.4 (-8.4) | 148.6 (-10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -11.2 (-7.2) | 146.6 (-8.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -11.8 (-7.8) | 145.3 (-7.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -12.1 (-8.1) | 145.9 (-7.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 68 MSST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ARK 93 – 92 MSST |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MSST 70 – 64 ARK |
| Feb 6, 2022 | ARK 63 – 55 MSST |
| Dec 29, 2021 | MSST 81 – 68 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#41) | 2.2 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#39) | 1.02 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#27) | 1.12 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#30) | 0.540 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | ARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 32.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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