Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -950 UNA +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +29 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -16.1 (+12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -12.9 (+16.1) | 144.6 (+8.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -10.6 (+18.4) | 144.0 (+9.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -12.3 (+16.7) | 141.4 (+11.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -12.8 (+16.2) | 143.5 (+9.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2025 | UNA 90 – 64 APSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNA 88 – 84 APSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | APSU 77 – 71 UNA |
| Feb 18, 2024 | APSU 87 – 79 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-9 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#154) | -12.6 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#120) | -1.87 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#132) | -2.64 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#93) | 0.411 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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