Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -1200 APSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +4 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -14.2 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+33.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -12.8 (-8.8) | 144.8 (+27.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -10.6 (-6.6) | 144.2 (+27.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -11.2 (-7.2) | 141.7 (+30.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -11.9 (-7.9) | 142.4 (+29.6) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | APSU 91 – 62 UNA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UNA 90 – 64 APSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 APSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | APSU 77 – 71 UNA |
| Feb 18, 2024 | APSU 87 – 79 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#120) | -8.3 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#161) | -0.90 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#150) | -1.22 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#168) | 0.469 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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