Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -188 APSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +8 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | UNA -2.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -2.3 (-10.3) | 145.7 (+20.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -2.9 (-10.9) | 143.7 (+22.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -2.4 (-10.4) | 144.4 (+21.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -2.4 (-10.4) | 145.5 (+20.5) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | APSU 91 – 62 UNA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UNA 90 – 64 APSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNA 88 – 84 APSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | APSU 77 – 71 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#242) | -3.6 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#223) | -0.38 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#222) | -0.62 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#235) | 0.492 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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