Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | APSU -188 UNA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | APSU -4.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -2.7 (+3.3) | 148.0 (+0.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -3.5 (+2.5) | 148.8 (-0.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -3.3 (+2.7) | 150.8 (-2.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -4.1 (+1.9) | 152.1 (-4.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | APSU 91 – 62 UNA |
| Mar 4, 2025 | UNA 90 – 64 APSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNA 88 – 84 APSU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | APSU 87 – 79 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#233) | -4.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#192) | -0.62 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#205) | -0.87 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#156) | 0.476 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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