Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -1000 APSU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +26 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -12.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -10.4 (+15.6) | 149.3 (+4.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -11.1 (+14.9) | 148.1 (+5.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -11.9 (+14.1) | 148.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -12.4 (+13.6) | 149.3 (+4.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | APSU 91 – 62 UNA |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNA 74 – 64 APSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UNA 88 – 84 APSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | APSU 77 – 71 UNA |
| Feb 18, 2024 | APSU 87 – 79 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-10 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#121) | -6.5 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#145) | -0.94 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#142) | -1.15 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#127) | 0.473 (#234) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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