Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +425 UNT -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +23 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -12.0 (-11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -11.1 (-11.9) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -11.8 (-11.2) | 136.9 (+2.1) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -11.3 (-11.7) | 134.9 (+4.1) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -11.5 (-11.5) | 135.2 (+3.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNT 81 – 62 UTSA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTSA 54 – 50 UNT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNT 72 – 57 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTSA 64 – 62 UNT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNT 63 – 59 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-12 | 12-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -15.2 (#351) | -0.2 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#342) | -0.21 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#337) | -0.25 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#321) | 0.475 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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