Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UTSA +300 UNT -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +15 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -8.4 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -8.3 (-6.7) | 136.4 (-7.4) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -8.1 (-6.9) | 138.4 (-9.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -7.1 (-7.9) | 137.5 (-8.5) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -9.0 (-6.0) | 136.6 (-7.6) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNT 81 – 58 UTSA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNT 81 – 62 UTSA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTSA 54 – 50 UNT |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTSA 64 – 62 UNT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNT 63 – 59 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-7 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 60.6 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#228) | 8.3 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#208) | 1.59 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#222) | 1.96 (#66) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#173) | 0.595 (#41) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTSA | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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