Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UNT -1600 UTSA +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTSA +4 | 104 | Lost |
| Massey | UNT -15.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-36.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -15.3 (-19.3) | 134.5 (-30.5) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -13.0 (-17.0) | 135.9 (-31.9) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -14.3 (-18.3) | 137.7 (-33.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -14.4 (-18.4) | 132.5 (-28.5) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNT 81 – 58 UTSA |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNT 81 – 62 UTSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNT 72 – 57 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTSA 64 – 62 UNT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNT 63 – 59 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 9.3 (#65) | -3.4 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#46) | -0.44 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#51) | -0.60 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#25) | 0.505 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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