Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNT -1450 UTSA +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +19 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -20.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -15.7 (+3.3) | 131.7 (+11.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -16.0 (+3.0) | 132.3 (+10.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -13.8 (+5.2) | 131.9 (+11.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -15.1 (+3.9) | 129.3 (+13.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNT 81 – 58 UTSA |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTSA 54 – 50 UNT |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNT 72 – 57 UTSA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTSA 64 – 62 UNT |
| Jan 27, 2023 | UNT 63 – 59 UTSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 12-5 | 2-12 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 82.9 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | -16.1 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#127) | -1.99 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#128) | -2.62 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#136) | 0.433 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 62.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.9% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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