See my tailor, he's called Simon, I know it's going to fit. "Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll" - Ian Dury
Conference USA · The Super Pit · January 27, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UNT -19.5 Away covered
O/U 124.5 Under
Money UNT -8000 / UTSA +1400
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNT win
Actual UNT +4 122 Won
Massey UNT -20.4 (-16.4)
Massey Totals 123.8 (-1.8)
Bradley-Terry 98%
Weighted B-T 99%
Efficiency Plus ML UNT -17.5 (-13.5) 124.2 (-2.2) 89%
Baseline Tuned ML UNT -14.2 (-10.2) 127.1 (-5.1) 89%
Baseline ML UNT -16.4 (-12.4) 126.5 (-4.5) 88%
Baseline Plus ML UNT -16.0 (-12.0) 125.9 (-3.9) 89%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 7, 2026 UNT 8158 UTSA
Jan 22, 2026 UNT 8162 UTSA
Feb 1, 2025 UTSA 5450 UNT
Jan 18, 2025 UNT 7257 UTSA
Feb 24, 2024 UTSA 6462 UNT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNT UTSA
Overall 31-7 10-22
Conference 16-4 4-16
Home 14-2 8-10
Away 10-3 2-11
Neutral 7-2 0-1
Last 5 3-2 0-5
Streak W5 L1
Avg Pts For 64.5 69.2
Avg Pts Against 56.3 78.1
Massey 7.5 (#73) -9.4 (#326)
Bradley-Terry 1.86 (#45) -1.48 (#305)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.07 (#56) -1.83 (#306)
RPI 0.594 (#32) 0.425 (#309)
Shooting & Four Factors UNT UTSA
FG% 41.0% 39.8%
3PT% 35.2% 35.0%
REB / G 33.3 34.1
OREB / G 11.4 9.8
AST / TO 0.92 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.7% 46.9%
TOV% 19.7% 19.7%
ORB% 34.7% 27.4%
FT Rate 22.4% 27.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.2% 51.7%
Opp TOV% 21.1% 14.7%
DRB% 72.5% 67.8%
Opp FT Rate 31.8% 21.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.