Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | PENN -166 PRIN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +1 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -6.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -3.9 (-2.9) | 140.1 (-19.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -5.1 (-4.1) | 141.3 (-20.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -4.6 (-3.6) | 141.6 (-20.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -5.2 (-4.2) | 142.8 (-21.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 6, 2026 | PRIN 78 – 76 PENN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PRIN 95 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PRIN 61 – 59 PENN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | PRIN 105 – 83 PENN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PRIN 77 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#184) | -4.2 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#186) | -0.95 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#164) | -0.99 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#155) | 0.466 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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