Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PRIN -400 PENN +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +24 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | PRIN -9.2 (+14.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -10.0 (+14.0) | 146.7 (+19.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -8.5 (+15.5) | 146.4 (+19.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -7.2 (+16.8) | 146.1 (+19.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -7.7 (+16.3) | 148.2 (+17.8) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | PENN 61 – 60 PRIN |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PRIN 78 – 76 PENN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PRIN 61 – 59 PENN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | PRIN 105 – 83 PENN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PRIN 77 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-8 |
| Away | 7-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | -8.0 (#292) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#133) | -1.39 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#166) | -1.47 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#94) | 0.442 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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