Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | PENN +290 PRIN -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +2 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -7.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -6.2 (+4.2) | 144.8 (-24.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -6.4 (+4.4) | 145.5 (-25.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -6.2 (+4.2) | 145.7 (-25.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -6.2 (+4.2) | 146.7 (-26.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | PENN 61 – 60 PRIN |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PRIN 78 – 76 PENN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PRIN 95 – 71 PENN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | PRIN 105 – 83 PENN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PRIN 77 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 19-11 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Home | 5-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#314) | 0.9 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.52 (#301) | 0.74 (#109) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#289) | 0.40 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#305) | 0.549 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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