Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PRIN -162 PENN +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +2 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PRIN -0.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -0.3 (+1.7) | 138.5 (+15.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -1.6 (+0.4) | 137.6 (+16.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -0.4 (+1.6) | 135.7 (+18.3) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -0.1 (+1.9) | 137.0 (+17.0) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | PENN 61 – 60 PRIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PRIN 95 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PRIN 61 – 59 PENN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | PRIN 105 – 83 PENN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PRIN 77 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-12 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#265) | -3.3 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#303) | -0.25 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#283) | -0.39 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#327) | 0.505 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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