Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PENN +210 PRIN -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +22 | 188 | Lost |
| Massey | PRIN -7.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+44.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -7.1 (-14.9) | 139.0 (+49.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -6.5 (-15.5) | 139.9 (+48.1) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -7.0 (-15.0) | 140.4 (+47.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -6.0 (-16.0) | 143.2 (+44.8) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | PENN 61 – 60 PRIN |
| Jan 6, 2026 | PRIN 78 – 76 PENN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PRIN 95 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 8, 2025 | PRIN 61 – 59 PENN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | PRIN 77 – 70 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 12-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#193) | 8.4 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#267) | 2.42 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#240) | 2.66 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#239) | 0.613 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 12.2% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 17.0% |
Game Analysis
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