Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | ND -120 FSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -4.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -4.3 (-7.3) | 151.1 (+9.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -4.6 (-7.6) | 153.6 (+7.4) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -4.7 (-7.7) | 148.1 (+12.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.7 (-7.7) | 149.8 (+11.2) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2025 | FSU 67 – 60 ND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FSU 67 – 58 ND |
| Jan 18, 2023 | FSU 84 – 71 ND |
| Dec 22, 2022 | FSU 73 – 72 ND |
| Mar 3, 2022 | FSU 74 – 70 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#83) | 5.8 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#80) | 0.74 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#81) | 0.76 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#85) | 0.522 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.