Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ND -1.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -0.1 (+4.1) | 145.2 (-1.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -1.0 (+3.0) | 142.4 (+1.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -0.2 (+4.2) | 144.0 (-0.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.1 (+3.9) | 146.1 (-2.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | FSU 82 – 79 ND |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FSU 67 – 60 ND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FSU 67 – 58 ND |
| Jan 18, 2023 | FSU 84 – 71 ND |
| Dec 22, 2022 | FSU 73 – 72 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#102) | 9.3 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#99) | 1.93 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#116) | 2.28 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#119) | 0.593 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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