Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ND -111 FSU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +9 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | FSU -0.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -1.4 (-7.6) | 137.3 (-12.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -0.1 (-9.1) | 137.5 (-12.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -0.8 (-8.2) | 133.6 (-8.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -0.9 (-8.1) | 133.7 (-8.7) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | FSU 82 – 79 ND |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FSU 67 – 60 ND |
| Jan 18, 2023 | FSU 84 – 71 ND |
| Dec 22, 2022 | FSU 73 – 72 ND |
| Mar 3, 2022 | FSU 74 – 70 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 10-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#157) | 5.3 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#171) | 0.94 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#164) | 1.25 (#100) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#143) | 0.569 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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