Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ND -200 FSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +13 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -6.3 (-19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -6.1 (-19.1) | 143.5 (+11.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.3 (-19.3) | 143.1 (+11.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -5.0 (-18.0) | 143.4 (+11.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -5.2 (-18.2) | 143.1 (+11.9) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | FSU 82 – 79 ND |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FSU 67 – 60 ND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FSU 67 – 58 ND |
| Dec 22, 2022 | FSU 73 – 72 ND |
| Mar 3, 2022 | FSU 74 – 70 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-8 | 5-11 |
| Away | 0-10 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#164) | -1.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#161) | -0.77 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#132) | -0.90 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#172) | 0.457 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | FSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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