Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -145 ND +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +7 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -4.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -4.2 (+2.8) | 140.0 (-13.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -3.9 (+3.1) | 142.0 (-15.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -3.7 (+3.3) | 142.9 (-15.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -3.7 (+3.3) | 143.3 (-16.3) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | FSU 82 – 79 ND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | FSU 67 – 58 ND |
| Jan 18, 2023 | FSU 84 – 71 ND |
| Dec 22, 2022 | FSU 73 – 72 ND |
| Mar 3, 2022 | FSU 74 – 70 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#77) | 6.7 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#107) | 0.17 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#95) | 0.71 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#118) | 0.499 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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